The International Energy Agency's Hydrogen Review was published yesterday. Some interesting takeaways include:
- Global demand for hydrogen last year was approximately 97Mt, a 2.5% yoy growth
- Low emission hydrogen production accounted for less than 1Mt
- Demand in emerging low carbon industries is less than 1% of global demand
- By 2030 5Mt of low emission hydrogen could be cost competitive with unabated fossil fuel produced hydrogen, with a further 12Mt only having a cost premium of $1.5/kgH2.
- Cost implication of this is only 1% on the price of an EV produced with green steel so the future is almost in reach
Similar to other parts of our journey to a low carbon economy, another area the report comments on is the need for better standardisation and taxonomy. We are familiar with the colours of hydrogen - black, grey, blue and green, but there are even also "shades" of blue and green. The ISO has released a methodology for determining GHG emissions associated with hydrogen production, transport and conversion/reconversion which will support global standardisation. In the EU the Renewable Energy Directive treats hydrogen as a 'renewable liquid and gaseous fuels of non-biological origin' (RFNBO) and as such, they need to deliver GHG emissions savings of 70 % compared to fossil fuels. Other countries are undertaking similar initiatives. It is important for investors and customers to be confident about the GHG emissions their suppliers generate or abate, not only for their own reporting needs, but also to ensure genuine carbon reduction.
Announced electrolyser projects has grown 30% in a year to a capacity of 510GW if it all enters operations and the amount of capacity that has achieved Final Investment Decision doubled to 3.4Mtpa and is almost evenly split between electrolysis and fossil fuel with carbon capture. Positive, but still baby steps in the overall scheme.
The talk around hydrogen is still not matched by activity and the scale of mobilisation required is significant. Lets hope to see some good progress over the coming review period, and as costs come down, just like with the early adoption of other renewable technologies, I hope to see the sector become main stream and modernise the industrial base and accelerate the journey towards a low carbon future.