We are now midway through the second week of COP31 and the end is near (especially if Brazil really does wrap up by close of business on Friday).

Here are some of the latest developments: 

• BAM!: One of the items preventing consensus is the Belem Action Mechanism. This is a just transition mechanism which has the support of trade unions, youth groups and broader civil society. Whilst countries representing 80% of the global population support the measure, it is still being resisted by the UK and Japan (with the EU internally divided on its position).
• Covert discussions: There is a noticeable lack of transparency at this COP with high-level private meetings - usually reserved for the final nail-biting moments of a COP - being used consistently over the two weeks. This has sadly led to a feeling on the ground that many delegates do not know what is likely to be in the final decision (or how we are reaching it).
• Cover text: The first version of the “Mutirao cover decision” was released on Tuesday. Whilst this continues to be negotiated, “ECO”, the COP newsletter, is calling for the inclusion of five popular demands: integrating the science on 1.5 degrees, delivering real climate finance (ie tripling the 2025 adaptation finance target of $40 bn to $120 bn by 2030), closing the NDC ambition gap with better accountability mechanisms, an immediate end to all fossil fuel subsidies, and ensuring fair trade rules (ie dealing with the inequities of unilateral trade mechanisms).
• Maximum security summit: Following an incident last week in which indigenous protesters temporarily locked down the COP venue, the military presence at the summit has been increased again. Entering the venue now involves passing rows of heavily-armed soldiers. The so-called “zone of exclusion” seems to contradict aims of this being the most inclusive COP so far.
• COP31 in Turk-stralia: We finally have a decision on the COP31 host: Türkiye. It will likely share COP responsibilities with a pre-COP in the Pacific, the actual COP in Türkiye and Australia performing the role of COP President (ie managing the negotiations, appointing co-facilitators, and issuing any cover decisions). We will have to see how this unfolds in practice … 

Thank you for following our updates from COP30.

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